As of 27 July 2026, Guadalajara is classified at MEDIUM epidemic risk (composite score 44.1). Measles is the dominant concern, with an estimated incidence of 80.1 cases per 100,000 derived from Mexico's national outbreak (PAHO Situation Report 3, cumulative EW 1–19, Jalisco state allocation) — the highest measles signal among all 16 host cities and at 100% of the reference maximum, reflecting the severity of the ongoing national outbreak. Dengue incidence is also notable at 3.49 cases per 100,000, the highest dengue figure among Mexican venues, consistent with Jalisco's endemic transmission during the rainy season. COVID-19 activity is low at 0.60 cases per 100,000, and influenza ILI stands at 0.1%. Data are derived from national-level PAHO proportional estimates (High coverage tier). International arrivals are substantial at 2,610. Warm and occasionally rainy conditions (23 °C, 67% humidity, 4.5 mm precipitation) support both Aedes mosquito activity and indoor respiratory crowding. Priority actions include mandatory MMR vaccination verification for all spectators, enhanced vector control and standing-water elimination around all venues, active dengue surveillance with rapid diagnostics for febrile travellers, rapid isolation protocols for suspected measles cases, and real-time coordination with Mexico's Secretaría de Salud and Jalisco state health authorities.
Model SCEME v3.1 · Updated July 27, 2026
Fan Brief
Updated daily
💉
Measles
High
High measles circulation in the city right now.
Highly contagious, airborne in crowded places (stadiums, transit, fan zones). Greatest risk is for those without 2 vaccine doses.
What to do
Confirm your 2 doses of the MMR vaccine before attending matches or crowded areas.
🦟
Dengue
Medium
Moderate dengue activity in the region.
Occasional outdoor risk, especially near standing water.
What to do
Use repellent during outdoor activities.
😷
COVID-19
Low
Low COVID-19 circulation.
Low risk right now.
What to do
Basic precautions are enough.
🤧
Influenza
Low
Low flu circulation.
Low risk right now.
What to do
Basic hand hygiene is enough.
Please consult a local doctor or pharmacist for guidance and medication.
Direct line
Chat with EpiRisk
Ask EpiRisk about Guadalajara's risk signal over WhatsApp. It replies with the latest read.